Last cycle, Democratic members of Congress relied on the strength of their incumbents to blunt their losses in competitive House districts: only six Democrats lost reelection (and two of those losses were largely a result of redistricting).

But four of the party’s strongest incumbents who represent swing House seats aren’t seeking reelection this cycle, opening up opportunities for Republicans to pick up an insurance seat or two as they attempt to defend their narrow majority.

In Michigan, 7th District Rep. Elissa Slotkin is running to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, and 8th District Rep. Dan Kildee is retiring after facing a cancer diagnosis last year (The 66-year-old is now cancer-free and is leaving Congress to spend more time with his family). In California, Rep. Katie Porter left the 47th District to mount an expensive, and ultimately unsuccessful, Senate campaign. And in Virginia, Rep. Abigail Spanberger decided not to run for reelection in the 7th District as she prepares for a competitive governor’s race in 2025.

Republicans have their best shots in Michigan’s two open seats, which Joe Biden barely

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