Republicans’ incredibly thin House majority will be even smaller for the first few months of the year, as President-elect Donald Trump plucks GOP Reps. Elisa Stefanik (NY-21) and Mike Waltz (FL-06) for jobs in his administration. Scandal-ridden Rep. Matt Gaetz (FL-01) has also resigned from his seat after withdrawing his name from consideration for attorney general.
Though the three vacant seats could cause some headaches in the short term, Republicans should have no trouble holding on to them in the upcoming special elections.
For the past few years, the highly-engaged voters most likely to cast ballots in off-year elections have favored Democrats, leading to relative Republican underperformances. That trend looks likely to continue this year — particularly as a Republican-controlled Washington inevitably spurs Democratic backlash — but it’s still incredibly unlikely that any of these congressional seats flip.
Trump carried both Florida districts by landslide margins last November. New York’s 21st District is a lighter shade of red, but the GOP nominee will be the heavy favorite to win the special election — particularly now that a top potential Democratic
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The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
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