The 2024 presidential election tells a clear story of a nationwide shift toward the Republican Party. President-elect Donald Trump is on track to improve on his 2020 margin in every single state, and he’ll be only the second GOP presidential nominee to win the popular vote since 1988. But despite Trump’s win and a four-seat gain for Senate Republicans, the race for the House was basically a wash. Republicans are on track for a majority between 220 and 222 seats, almost identical to their current 221-seat majority. Based on an initial scan of historical data, this appears to be the first time in U.S. history that there is no net change in House seats.
The individual results in competitive races presented few surprises. The Toss Up races split down the middle — Republicans won nine, Democrats won eight, and five remain uncalled. Republicans swept the races rated Solid, Likely, and Lean Republican, and Democrats are on track to win all but one of the Solid, Likely, and Lean Democrat races (we had rated Nebraska’s 2nd District as Lean Democrat, but
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.