The 2024 presidential election tells a clear story of a nationwide shift toward the Republican Party. President-elect Donald Trump is on track to improve on his 2020 margin in every single state, and he’ll be only the second GOP presidential nominee to win the popular vote since 1988. But despite Trump’s win and a four-seat gain for Senate Republicans, the race for the House was basically a wash. Republicans are on track for a majority between 220 and 222 seats, almost identical to their current 221-seat majority. Based on an initial scan of historical data, this could be the first time in U.S. history that there is no net change in House seats.
The individual results in competitive races presented few surprises. The Toss Up races split down the middle — Republicans won nine, Democrats won eight, and five remain uncalled. Republicans swept the races rated Solid, Likely, and Lean Republican, and Democrats are on track to win all but one of the Solid, Likely, and Lean Democrat races (we had rated Nebraska’s 2nd District as Lean Democrat, but GOP
What is The Cook Political Report?
The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
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