Less than two months from Election Day, it's still not clear Donald Trump's nomination is dragging down more House Republicans than were already vulnerable. Democrats are about to launch on a ferocious ad campaign to link Republicans to their nominee, but polling on both sides shows they have a long way to go to erase most GOP incumbents' leads. Democrats would need to win 30 GOP seats for a majority, and that still looks like a serious reach. Unlike 2006 and 2010, when the minority party was able to take back the House by running against an unpopular president, Democrats hold the White House. That means Democrats must make their case for change by running against an exotic and unpopular GOP presidential nominee who is running behind and doesn't even have the endorsement of many Republicans in the trickiest seats. That's proving very difficult to do. Meanwhile, Republicans aren't at all afraid to start linking Democratic candidates to Hillary Clinton. And, the relationship between the top of the ticket and the House ballot may not be a straight line. The
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