Is There a Magic Number for Democrats to Take Back the House?

This article was originally published at nbc.com on September 8, 2016. As the presidential campaign enters its final stretch, many people have begun to ask me: "What size margin would Hillary Clinton need to win the White House by in order for Democrats to win back the House?" To be honest, there may be no such magic number. Conventional wisdom holds that a landslide Donald Trump loss could imperil Republicans down the ballot, because straight-ticket voting has been on the rise in recent years. But thanks to Trump, 2016 is not at all a "normal" year, and the relationship between the top of the ticket and the down-ballot may not be so linear. It's no secret that both candidates' unpopularity has created a large bloc of "nose-holding" voters who see their choice as the lesser of two evils. And a larger Trump loss wouldn't lead to a mandate for Clinton and Democrats, who need to flip 30 Republican seats to win control of the House of Representatives. In fact, the more apparent it is that Trump will lose, the more