Seven weeks out, Republicans face difficult choices: which of their own districts should they abandon to focus resources on other districts that are savable? At this point, a number of GOP incumbents are in dire shape, including Reps. Mike Coffman (CO-06) and Erik Paulsen (MN-03) in addition to Reps. Rod Blum (IA-01), Keith Rothfus (PA-17) and Barbara Comstock (VA-10), who were already in our Lean Democratic column.
If there's a caution for Democrats, however, it's that heavily Latinos districts haven't matched the enthusiasm and leftward movement parties have observed in professional suburbs. That's a big reason why Democrats haven't put away Florida's open 27th CD in Miami or California's open 39th CD in Orange County and why GOP Reps. Carlos Curbelo (FL-26) and Will Hurd (TX-23) remain narrow favorites.
This week, we're shifting six ratings, four reflecting movement towards Democrats and two towards Republicans. View our full ratings here.
FL-18: Brian Mast (R) - Lean R to Likely R → FL-27: OPEN (Ros-Lehtinen-R) - Lean D to Toss Up → GA-07: Rob Woodall (R) -Likely R to Lean
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.