What Will the House Democrats' Freshman Class Look Like?

The incoming class of House freshman Democrats will be large, assertive and influential in determining the future of the House and their party. Six months before they take office, they already have gained considerable notice locally and among political insiders. The group recently gained national attention when Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeated Democratic Caucus chairman Joe Crowley in the New York primary and virtually assured her seat in the new Congress.

Based on the primaries that already have been held, especially in seats that almost certainly will elect a Democrat in November, about 20 of these freshmen can be identified. And most of the Democrats with the best opportunity to take the roughly 50 Republican-held seats have been selected. Many of them likely will win in November. The size of the latter group will determine whether Democrats take House control, and by what margin. Several characteristics stand out.

• Like Ocasio-Cortez, a large number will be women—roughly half of the 50-plus most likely first-term Democrats.
• As many as 20 of the new Democrats will be racial minorities (perhaps half of them women), with a large share of them replacing Caucasians—both Democrats and Republicans.
• But only a few Democrats—of any gender or race—will share the youthful and urban profile of Ocasio-Cortez.

This early assessment of next year’s freshman class results from the primaries in more than 300 House districts that have selected congressional candidates since the initial contests in Texas on March 6.

The specific identity of many of the freshmen remains uncertain, notably those who will prevail in the remaining primaries for Democratic-held seats—most of which are competitive—and the likely large number of freshmen who will step forward after defeating Republicans on Nov. 6.

The Democratic prospects can be listed in five categories: The nominees who already have been selected in Democratic-held seats; Democrats who will win upcoming primaries for other Democratic-held seats; Democrats who are nearly certain or likely to take Republican-held seats; Democrats in toss-up contests for GOP-held seats; and Democrats in potentially competitive contests for GOP-held seats.

The following lists have been prepared with assistance from the latest House ratings of the Cook Political Report, plus biographical and campaign information from Ballotpedia, the Encyclopedia of American Politics. In each group, candidates who are women and/or minorities are highlighted. 

Democratic nominees in Democratic-held seats (11):

Upcoming primaries for Democratic-held seats (11):

Each of the following open seats is favored to remain Democratic, according to the Cook Political Report, except for MN-1 and MN-8, which are toss-ups.In addition to the open seats above, the following candidate is waging a competitive challenge against Rep. Mike Capuano:

Democrats nearly certain or likely to take Republican-held seats (9):

(Primaries have not yet been held in Arizona and Florida. Listings in Pennsylvania reflect this year’s redistricting changes.)

Democrats in toss-up contests for GOP-held seats (22):

(Primaries have not yet been held in Florida, Michigan, Minnesota and Washington. A special election is scheduled for the Ohio seat on Aug 7)

Democrats in potentially competitive contests for GOP-held seats (25):

(Primaries have not yet been held in Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Michigan, Washington and Wisconsin. In a few cases below, the likely winner of an upcoming primary is listed.)

The listings highlight several notable trends:

• Many of the early freshmen are relatively senior, including some who have been elected to office for more than 20 years and are at least twice the age of 28-year-old Ocasio-Cortez. They include Latinos Jesus Garcia of Illinois and Sylvia Garcia of Texas, plus state legislators Joe Morelle of New York and Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey, both of whom are white and from less-populous areas. Younger Democrats, including minorities, are top prospects in some of the remaining primaries, such as districts based in Detroit and Minneapolis.
• Women are a majority of the Democrats who are nearly certain to win seats, but a smaller share of the nominees in toss-up contests. That appears to reflect the strength of women candidates—and voters—in this year’s Democratic primaries, plus the continuing challenges that they face in running against Republican incumbents.
• Minority Democrats are most prominent in Democratic-held open seats. Some—such as Sylvia Garcia and Veronica Escobar in Texas and Joe Neguse in Colorado, in addition to Ocasio-Cortez—are in line to replace Anglo Democrats. A few of the challengers in toss-up Republican seats are racial minorities.
• White male Democrats are scant in districts where Democrats are nearly certain to win; one of the exceptions is self-financing David Trone in the Maryland suburbs. But they are prominent in toss-up districts. That could produce internal conflicts among Democrats and their interest groups on where to direct their resources during the final months of the campaign.

Separately, at least two dozen freshman Republicans likely will join the House in January. Most of them are taking Republican-held open seats. All but a handful will be white males. Of the probable GOP newcomers, six will be from Texas (including the winner of a special election last month) and three each will be from Pennsylvania and Tennessee.

Richard E. Cohen is Chief Author of The Almanac of American Politics. For more insights, including profiles of all Members of Congress and the governors, order your copy of the Almanac from www.thealmanacofamericanpolitics.com