Thanks to rapid population growth across the Mountain West, Idaho is on track to gain a third congressional district in 2032. Though the state remains a deep shade of red — Donald Trump won it by 37 points in 2024 — a third congressional district could have the potential to be competitive, since the state’s redistricting process is controlled by a bipartisan commission.
In the meantime, any interesting political activity in the state’s two current congressional seats will be confined to Republican primary contests.
Veteran Rep. Mike Simpson had to face down conservative primary challengers in both 2022 and 2024, thanks to his support for a Jan. 6 commission and his more moderate positions on environmental and social issues. If the 74-year-old decides to run again, he’ll likely face another primary threat from his right. If he retires, the contest to succeed him could draw a swarm of Republicans in the 2nd District who’ve waited nearly three decades for an open seat.
Meanwhile, Rep. Russ Fulcher will have no trouble winning reelection in the deep red 1st District. He may
What is The Cook Political Report?
The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.