With Rep. Angie Craig’s announcement that she’s running for Minnesota’s open Senate seat, House Democrats are losing one of their strongest incumbents. But Democrats remain heavily favored to hold this seat even without her.
Craig’s electoral dominance — thanks to her moderate record and fundraising skills — has kept this seat out of Republicans’ reach for the past several election cycles. At the same time, the Twin Cities’ suburbs have drifted to the left since 2016, when the 2nd District narrowly voted for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton. In 2020, Joe Biden carried the seat by seven points, and Kamala Harris carried it by six points last November. Craig won reelection by her largest margin yet last cycle, defeating Republican Joe Teirab by a comfortable 13.5 points.
Even in a neutral political environment, Democrats should be favored to hold Minnesota's 2nd. But Republicans’ odds of flipping this seat are better now that Craig won’t be the incumbent, so we're moving it from Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat.
A number of elected officials and former congressional candidates are considering running, so
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