Nebraska’s 2nd District was always going to host a crucial battle in the fight for control of the House. Kamala Harris won the district by 4.6 points — making it, per the 2024 presidential results, the bluest district held by a House Republican. But GOP Rep. Don Bacon, a retired Air Force general with a strong independent streak, had become one of his party’s most formidable incumbents since he flipped this Omaha-based district in 2016, and Democrats universally regarded him as a tough opponent.
Now that Bacon has decided to not run for reelection, we’re moving this district from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. While this race remains highly competitive, Democrats should have an advantage in 2026, and it’s become the number one seat on the party’s target list.
Trump’s 2024 margin in the 2nd was a slight improvement on his margin in 2020, when Joe Biden won by 6.3 points. But the president has clearly lost ground since 2016, when he won the district by two points. Whoever wins the Republican primary next year can’t just count on Trump’s
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The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
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