After a disappointing midterm cycle, New York Democrats are attempting to redeem themselves. They have opportunities to flip as many as four competitive House seats held by Republicans, and their ability to win the House likely depends on winning at least two of those seats.

In 2022, Democrats’ struggles were in large part due to Gov. Kathy Hochul’s weak performance at the top of the ticket, as New Yorkers were frustrated with the state’s handling of public safety issues. Republicans did particularly well on Long Island, GOP gubernatorial nominee Lee Zeldin’s home base, but also made significant inroads in the Hudson Valley and further upstate.

Though the political environment is less rosy for Republicans this cycle, there’s evidence that Vice President Kamala Harris will underperform President Biden’s 2020 margin in the Empire State. Though statewide polling is limited, she’s leading former President Trump by an average of 15 points, according to FiveThirtyEight, several points behind Biden’s 23-point margin in 2020. Polling of congressional districts shows Trump’s gains will be most concentrated on Long Island, but he could also make inroads

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