Democrats’ path back to the House majority runs through the Empire State, where several Republican members now hold seats that Biden is likely to win again in 2024. Though the Democratic-controlled state Legislature redrew the state’s congressional map earlier this year, most of these districts were largely unaffected and remain highly competitive in November.

Democrats have avoided nasty primaries in the 4th, 17th and 19th districts, putting them in a better position to unseat Republican incumbents. But they still have competitive primaries in the 1st and 22nd districts on June 25.

Meanwhile, progressive firebrand Rep. Jamaal Bowman (NY-16) faces a daunting challenge from Westchester County Executive George Latimer, who’s accumulated significant local support while benefiting from millions of dollars in outside spending.

NY-01: Nick LaLota (R) - Long Island North Shore: Riverhead, Smithtown, the HamptonsLikely Republican. Buoyed by the red wave that swept across New York last November, LaLota won his first term by a solid 11-point margin — despite running in a seat that Biden had narrowly won in 2020. This cycle, LaLota remains in a relatively strong

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