Like Charlie Brown charging a football, Democrats are saddling back up for their quadrennial run at North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes. They’re buoyed by a familiar refrain: Four more years of population growth and diversification in Charlotte and the Research Triangle may finally be enough to put them over the top.
But Democrats’ urban inroads are only part of the story of North Carolina, where a number of overlooked demographic trends have actually boosted Republicans. For years, rural African Americans have left poor counties in eastern North Carolina for more promising opportunities in larger metropolitan areas. That flight, combined with the Republican-controlled General Assembly’s ruthless redistricting makeover last year, has handed the GOP a golden opportunity to claim North Carolina’s 1st District for the first time since 1882.
Both parties read good fortunes in the 1st District’s tobacco leaves, where freshman Democratic Rep. Don Davis — one of the most moderate members of the Congressional Black Caucus — is seeking to fend off retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout. But less than seven weeks out, neither candidate is particularly well-defined. That
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The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
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