This week's retirement announcements by GOP Reps. Jeb Hensarling (TX-05) and Lamar Smith (TX-21) inevitably feed the narrative that Republicans are throwing their hands up in the air and opting out of an unproductive Congress in the era of Trump. In reality, their decisions likely have at least as much to do with the House GOP's rules term-limiting them out of chairing the House's Financial Services and Science committees, respectively, beyond 2018.
Hensarling and Smith bring the number of open Republican House seats to 20, double Democrats' tally. But their exits don't widen Democrats' path to a majority. Of the 20 open GOP seats, only four are truly marginal seats.Hensarling's suburban Dallas seat has a Cook PVI score of R+16, way beyond Democrats' reach. Of the pair, only Smith's R+10 district has the potential to be interesting, but it's still a very long shot.
Smith, the dean of Texas's delegation, has long cruised to reelection in a white-collar district connecting suburbs of San Antonio and Austin. Today, both metro regions are rapidly moving away from the GOP. In 2016, President
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