If Democrats hope to take back the House in 2026, they’ll almost certainly need to flip districts that voted for Donald Trump last November. And their best opportunities are against Republican members who already have a record of underperforming the president.
Wisconsin’s sprawling, largely rural 3rd District voted for Trump by a seven-point margin in 2024. But Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden won reelection by less than three points against Rebecca Cooke, a 37-year-old small business owner who ran as an unabashed moderate.
Cooke launched her 2026 campaign at the beginning of March, and her initial fundraising numbers — she raised $1 million in the first three weeks of her campaign — quickly put her at the top of the pack of Democratic House candidates. Though she’s facing two local elected officials in the Democratic primary, her strong financial advantage makes it incredibly unlikely that she won’t win the nomination next year.
Cooke’s early momentum, coupled with encouraging results for Democrats in this month’s state Supreme Court race, moves this race from the Lean Republican column to Toss Up.
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