In the turbulent 2016 and 2020 elections, the White House effectively hinged on fewer than 78,000 votes across the three closest states. Eight years ago, Donald Trump — despite losing the popular vote by 2.1 points — prevailed by a cumulative raw vote margin of 77,744 votes across Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Four years ago, Joe Biden — despite winning the popular vote by 4.5 points — defeated Trump by a cumulative raw vote margin of 42,918 votes across Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin.
With a week to go, this election is awash in data and theories about which trends will prove decisive: Will it be a turnout surge of “Trump bro” Gen Z men? A post-Dobbs backlash of working-class, pro-choice women? A decline in Black turnout and support for Democrats? A late ebb in Latino support for Trump, especially concentrated among Puerto Rican voters?
All these cohorts matter when the margins are whisker-thin, and it’s going to take a while to calibrate and unpack exit poll data. But the first indications of what’s happening on Election Night will come from
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The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
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