According to the chatter in Washington and on Twitter today, the election is over. The Donald Trump campaign literally imploded, sending red hot shards of burning metal across the countryside. The campaign staff is in disarray, RNC leaders are apoplectic and looking for an “out clause” on the nomination. Meanwhile, calls from the GOP elites for elected officials to “Dump Trump” continue to grow. But, pardon me for not going along with the narrative. Do I think Trump is a damaged candidate running a terrible campaign? Absolutely. Do I think that he has zero chance to win and has effectively lost the race in August? No. Here’s why. First, we have two of the most disliked and distrusted candidates running against each other in modern political history. That point can’t be understated. It creates much more fluidity and volatility than we’ve seen in our more “traditional” campaigns. As I’ve written before, they are also challenging the traditional coalitions and alliances that we have come to know and understand. Second, Clinton got a decent convention bump in the polls. Whether or

More from the Cook Political Report

Four Possible Leaders; Four Unenviable Tasks
National Politics
Photo of Charlie Cook
First Person
Cook Politcal Logo
Where History Rhymed and Where It Didn’t
National Politics