In thinking about the developing contest for next year’s Republican presidential nomination, a good place to start is the size, shape and configuration of the conflagration. Will it be a large and wide-open brawl, reminiscent of the 17-person Republican field in 2016 and the 29 Democrats four years ago? Or will it be closer to the three Democrats—Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O’Malley—who ran in 2016?

Most expect the former: So many names are bandied about that University of Denver political scientist Seth Masket has put together a helpful spreadsheet of 16 Republican wannabes who have taken steps that tend to lead to a presidential bid. Some will almost certainly not get to the starting line, but the core group is made up of former President Trump, his former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, and two other members of the Trump administration, former Vice President Mike Pence and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Then there will be an assortment of sitting governors such as Ron DeSantis of Florida, Kristi Noem of South Dakota, Chris Sununu of New Hampshire,

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