An age-old argument among political operatives is the relative importance of persuasion versus turnout. One group makes the case that scarce campaign resources should go toward targeting the malleable voters in the middle, those with loose if any partisan ties, and driving them in the desired direction. The other group argues that truly swing voters are very few, and so it’s a better use of time and money to excite voters who can be counted on for support, if only they’ll go to the polls. Which candidate Republicans decide to nominate for president next year could well turn on that basic question. Assuming the GOP, through its primaries and caucuses, doesn’t roll the dice on a pure outsider like Donald Trump, they’ll choose either a candidate whose appeal reaches into the middle, such as (in alphabetical order, lest anyone be offended) Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich, or Marco Rubio, or one designed to maximize support in the party’s conservative base, like Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, or Rick Santorum. I suppose you could count both neurosurgeon Ben Carson and businesswoman
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