Hillary Clinton has a solid lead in the national polls. Donald Trump is trailing in every swing state and is underperforming in states easily carried by past GOP nominees such as Georgia and Arizona. The question now is whether Clinton’s lead is durable and insurmountable. First, we look at the data. The most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll has Clinton leading Trump by 9 points, 47-38 percent. Of the seven polls they’ve taken this year, Clinton has averaged a lead of 8 points. The closest this race has been was in May when Trump was just three points behind Clinton 43 to 46 percent. So, what changed between May and today?

As you can see from the chart, Trump’s biggest drops came among some of his staunchest supporters - white men (he dropped 17 points), white voters without a college degree (he dropped 14 points), and Republicans (he dropped five points). Among swing voters, Trump lost big among moderates (21 points), and lost five points among white women. His drop among white women and whites with a college

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