This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on September 30, 2016 We’re in the political twilight period that comes after the first presidential debate but before reliable surveys measure the public’s reaction. Everyone except Donald Trump thinks Hillary Clinton “won” the debate, but don’t expect a big jump for her in the polls. After the two conventions and some bad weeks for Trump, Clinton jumped ahead by an unrealistic and unsustainable lead of about 8 points. Then she had a couple of horrible weeks punctuated by a near-collapse from pneumonia, and she plunged to a razor-thin and frankly unimaginable lead of just a point or two. In the few days leading up the debate it looked like Clinton had bottomed out, and even picked up a point or two. But the race was still close and will likely remain so even after the debate reactions are factored in. It’s possible that Clinton picked up another point or two from the debate, putting her advantage back into the 3-to-5 point range. That strikes me as the natural contour of this race,
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