This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on October 18, 2016 It’s getting increasingly difficult to characterize the presidential race as competitive. It really isn’t. Donald Trump’s share of the vote hasn’t plummeted, but his numbers among undecided voters—the crucial swing voters who are not part of his base—have become toxic. He has doubled down on keeping his base intact, making it difficult if not impossible to expand his support. Meanwhile, Libertarian Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s nominee, Jill Stein, are watching their share of the vote shrink. Hillary Clinton is the beneficiary of all of this. When we look back on this race, we are likely to see a combination of the first debate and the taped conversations of Trump’s lewd and loutish remarks about women as the seminal point. Before then, Clinton had an edge but was no shoo-in. Now, it would take something momentous to push Trump over the top. Clinton’s victory margin is likely to consist of people who don’t like or trust her but cannot stomach Trump. So what happens down-ballot? Given the recent
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