There is little ambiguity in the polling data. Large majorities of Americans do not want to see President Biden run for a second term or for Democrats to nominate him again. A poll conducted for the Associated Press by the University of Chicago's National Opinion Research Center last month showed that only 22 percent of adults nationwide wanted Biden to run again, while 78 percent did not. Among Democrats, 37 percent wanted Biden to run again and 62 percent didn’t. And just 12 percent of independents wanted him to seek reelection.

Earlier this month, ABC News and The Washington Post released their pre-State of the Union national survey showing that just 31 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents wanted their party to renominate Biden in 2024, while 58 percent did not.

But on the other hand, polling last year showed Biden with very low approval ratings, suggesting that his party would have a tough midterm election last November. But contrary to political history, the election ended up not being much of a referendum on Biden or his low approval numbers.

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