The 2026 midterm-election prospects for the two major political parties in the House and Senate are as different as night and day. The Republican majority in the House today is as precarious as either party has seen in that chamber in at least a century. Conversely, the GOP’s majority in the Senate is about as solid as can be, regardless of what President-elect Trump’s standing will be in November 2026.
Looking at historical midterms, the party of a sitting president has lost House seats in 18 out of 20 midterm elections since the end of World War II, the sole exceptions being back-to-back midterms in 1998 and 2002. The former was influenced by a backlash against Republican efforts to impeach and remove former President Clinton from office. Going into the midterm, Clinton’s job-approval rating in the Gallup poll was 66 percent (30 percent disapproved). In the latter, former President George W. Bush was still riding high 14 months after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, with the country unusually unified. Bush had a 63 percent Gallup approval rating (29 percent disapproved).
What is The Cook Political Report?
The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.