Although the November 2026 midterm elections are a full 19 months away, the turbulence in the economy leads us to wonder whether President Trump will be a liability for the Republican Party in defending their Senate and House majorities, or if he will not be a determinative factor at all.
During Trump’s first term, his highest Gallup Poll approval rating was 49 percent, with a low of 34 percent. His most recent, in March, was 43 percent, down from 47 percent in late January and 45 percent in February. Looking at it another way, the March reading was basically halfway between his first-term high and low. Given the extreme levels of partisanship these days, it is very unlikely that his approval will drop below his first-term floor of 34 percent (or President Biden’s 36 percent, for that matter). We just don’t see enough defections from fellow party members to get below that.
At the same time, given all that is going on, Trump does have a greater downside risk than upside. In his first term, the economy was his strength—now,
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