This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 24, 2016 It’s easy to un­der­stand why Re­pub­lic­ans are so frus­trated about this pres­id­en­tial elec­tion. Both his­tory and a highly vul­ner­able pre­sumptive Demo­crat­ic nom­in­ee ar­gue strongly that this should be a very win­nable elec­tion for them. Yet things don’t look very rosy for the GOP right now. There is a pen­du­lum ef­fect in pres­id­en­tial elec­tions. After a party has held the White House for two terms, voters usu­ally feel it’s time for a change. In 1960, after eight years un­der Re­pub­lic­an Dwight Eis­en­hower, Demo­crat John Kennedy won. After eight years un­der Kennedy and Lyn­don John­son, Re­pub­lic­an Richard Nix­on won in 1968. After two terms un­der Nix­on and Ger­ald Ford, Demo­crat Jimmy Carter won in 1976. After Bill Clin­ton’s eight years, George W. Bush won in 2000. After eight years un­der Bush, Barack Obama won in 2008. All told, the pat­tern has held in five of six elec­tions since World War II. The lone ex­cep­tion was 1988. After eight years un­der Pres­id­ent Re­agan, his vice pres­id­ent, George H.W. Bush, served one term

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