These are the best of times and worst of times for those of us in the political analysis business. With the election now completed, we finally have real data — not just polling and analytics — to help us better understand what happened. But, it’s also not the most accurate data that will ultimately be available. Though most states have completed their vote counts, there are still a lot of outstanding ballots to be tallied, especially in states like Arizona and California. Make sure to follow the Cook Political Report’s House and national vote trackers for the latest vote totals.
More important, we are flying somewhat blind in understanding exactly *who* voted. For example, while the Trump campaign focused extensively on turning out low-propensity, or infrequent, voters, we don’t know yet if those who showed up to vote in 2024 fit that description. We also know that Democrats counted on their “anti-Trump” base — made up of voters who joined the electorate post-2016 — to show up once again this election. It looks obvious that many stayed home. But, we
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