The question on a lot of minds today is what impact the U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities this past weekend will have on President Trump’s standing with the public. Some no doubt will point to the surge in President George H.W. Bush’s approval rating to 89 percent after the 1991 victory in the Persian Gulf War. They might also point to his son, President George W. Bush, soaring as high as 90 percent approval after the 9/11 attacks.
But our politics has grown far more partisan since then, making it very difficult, if not impossible, for a president to reach those levels today. Starting during Bill Clinton’s first term and growing in intensity during the presidencies of George W. Bush and Barack Obama, the two parties have embraced “negative partisanship”—hating the other party, its candidates, and leaders even more than they like or approve of those in their own party. This tribalism, exacerbated by gerrymandering and the silos created and intensified by the contemporary media landscape, has reshaped our politics, and not for the better.
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