Less than two years from now, the 2021 redistricting round will begin in earnest. But the fierce fight over the next decade's political cartography is already well underway. The Senate finally confirmed a new Census director, but Democrats express concern about the bureau's readiness for next year's count. And of course, Trump administration's plan to add a citizenship question is a third rail destined for the Supreme Court.

Meanwhile, redistricting reformers are basking in the passage of 2018 ballot initiatives in Colorado, Michigan, Ohio and Utah designed to shift congressional line-drawing power away from state legislators and towards independent commissions. But reforms don't always cut politics out of the process: for example, under Utah's new process, the commission's work is still subject to approval from a very partisan legislature.

Amid these uncertainties, the parties are busy raising hundreds of millions for 2020 legislative races and the legal fights sure to ensue, via REDMAP 2020 and the National Democratic Redistricting Committee. But setting aside the inevitable partisan warfare, which states are poised to gain and lose House seats in 2022?


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