Trump’s unexpected primary victory has led many to reassess his prospects for the general election. After all, Trump won a major party nomination without doing all the things that campaigns are SUPPOSED to do - polling, data analytics, fundraising and traditional campaign operations. Why can’t we assume he upends the fundamentals in November as well? Before we talk of disrupting the fundamentals or the assumptions of 2016, it’s best to take a serious look at what they are and what they mean.
1. A primary is different from a general election.
This is both the most obvious and least appreciated factor in this contest. Compared to the general voting population, the GOP electorate is overwhelmingly white (90 percent) and disproportionately male. The Democratic electorate is more racially diverse and disproportionately female than the November electorate. In other words, the coalitions that a candidate puts together to win a primary don’t always translate in a general election. Let’s take a look at Trump’s coalition in the primaries. Exit poll data analyzed by Atlantic’s Ron Brownstein found Trump’s strongest constituency was
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.