
It used to be that a candidate with some combination of personality, charm, a good story, hard work, and good fortune could win in a state with strong partisan leanings in the opposite direction. Now, that is harder and harder in gubernatorial elections and nearly impossible in Senate races. Federal races and the issues that naturally arise in them are easily nationalized, making it difficult to defy that gravitational pull of partisanship.
Nowadays, for statewide and presidential elections, the action is mostly limited to the almost universally accepted list of seven swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump won six out of seven, all but Nevada. In 2020, Joe Biden won six out of seven, all but North Carolina. Apart from the seven, it's still worth keeping an eye on the half-dozen states that are politically adjacent to the swing states: Republicans seem always to be eyeing New Hampshire, New Jersey, Virginia, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. Democrats often, usually futilely, have dreams of flipping Florida and Texas.
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