It is impossible to overstate how important winning the Keystone State is to the Electoral College prospects for both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. For Trump, winning 270 Electoral College votes without Pennsylvania requires him to win at least four states he lost in 2020: Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and either Wisconsin or Michigan. If Trump wins Pennsylvania, he only has to carry one additional state he lost in 2020: Georgia.
Polling suggests that Harris’ most feasible path to 270 runs through the “Blue Wall” states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. A fascinating analysis of this region by political analyst Ron Brownstein noted that these three states have voted the same way in every presidential election for the last forty years, with only one exception in 1988 when Vice President George H.W. Bush carried Pennsylvania and Michigan but lost Wisconsin.
If she were to lose Pennsylvania, she’d need to win at least two of the four Sun Belt battleground states of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina to make up for it.
Since entering the race in
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