Many Democrats have lived in an agitated state over the last month, seemingly obsessing over every single poll in every swing state, changes in survey results that were little more than statistical noise, the splitting of psephological hairs. Now with a small but visible shift in the direction of former President Trump over the last four or five days, one wonders whether Democrats have the emotional bandwidth to cope. The shift in numbers is neither dramatic nor decisive, but it appears across the swing states and national surveys alike, making it too much to ignore.
Using Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin model, Pennsylvania is now dead even, while Harris is ahead by three-tenths of a percentage point in Wisconsin, five-tenths of a percent in Michigan, and six-tenths of a percent in Nevada. Trump is ahead by eight-tenths of a percentage point in North Carolina, 1.6 percent in Georgia, and 1.7 percent in Arizona. All should be considered basically even, although the overall landscape is a bit better for Trump now than it was a week or a month ago.
The New
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.