One of the cardinal rules of politics is to never assume that one survey and one survey alone can provide an accurate reflection of the race. It’s better to have as many polls as possible, so that an outlier doesn’t have undue influence.
Then there’s the Ann Selzer poll of Iowa, which is sponsored by The Des Moines Register and is released at this time every election year. More often than not, the Iowa poll is the one that looks like the outlier. In 2020, Selzer’s survey found an electorate that was more Trump-friendly than the national and swing state polls were showing at the time. In 2016, when the conventional wisdom and data suggested an easy Hillary Clinton win, Selzer’s final Iowa poll showed her down seven; she would lose the state by nine points after President Barack Obama had carried it by six points four years earlier.
So, when Selzer’s Iowa poll dropped on Saturday night, showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by three points in a state that Trump won by eight points
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