It would be hard to have more political uncertainty than we do right now, with seven swing states effectively dead even in polling. Given how narrowly and bitterly divided our country currently is, however, we shouldn’t be too surprised. Anyone reasonably sure they know the outcome has a lot more confidence in polling than I—or most pollsters I know—do.

There has long been a natural tendency for partisans, of either the red or blue hue, to cherry-pick polls. They ignore or discount surveys that indicate a potentially unfavorable outcome while placing great reliance on those suggesting a more desired outcome. Of late, it seems that many Democrats have developed a bad habit of dismissing polls showing them even or behind but stand 100 percent behind the findings of those with any kind of margin in their favor, no matter how statistically insignificant that edge may be. Both sides these days should feel like the proverbial Southern long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs.

One question I’m often asked is, “Who could possibly be undecided? Who could be torn

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