I promised myself that I would not write about Donald Trump. There is approximately zero percent chance that he will be the GOP nominee. Moreover, the odds are incredibly small that his candidacy survives much into 2016. He’s a blowhard who is desperate for attention and will do anything to get it. But, like the oppressive humidity of a DC summer, he has become unavoidable. I am asked about Trump more than Hillary, Jeb or Obama – combined. As such – sigh – here’s my take on what his rise in the polls means – and what it doesn’t.

  1. Democrats and liberals point to Trump’s rise in the GOP horserace polling as proof that his illegal immigrant bashing message has resonance with the Republican base. While it is true that Republican voters are divided on this issue (see Pew’s outstanding look at this from June) it’s not clear that his rise is only about policy. In an era when Washington and the “political class” are about as popular as the stomach flu, a no-nonsense businessman who isn’t afraid

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