If you want to drive yourself insane for the next 40+ days, tether yourself to the latest prediction models for the outcome of the presidential election. This isn’t a swipe against those who build and promote election models. It’s a plea to stop cherry-picking, un-skewing or attaching your hopes, dreams and fears to one poll or a poll model on any given day.
Instead, look at the trendline to help keep you sane and to give you a more realistic understanding of where the race stands.
For example, the most notable trend over the last six weeks has been the shift in positive perceptions of Harris. On July 1, the 538 polling average found that voters viewed Harris more unfavorably than favorably, with Harris underwater at -16. Since entering the race in late July, however, voter perceptions of the Vice President have improved dramatically, with an equal number of voters viewing her favorably as viewing her unfavorably. Meanwhile, opinions of former President Donald Trump have remained static. In early July, Trump’s favorability rating was at -10 points. It remains at
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