For most of modern American political history, one thing about presidential elections was gospel: When more people vote, the Democratic Party benefits.
But in 2024, President Donald Trump’s dramatic gains among typically lower-propensity and Democratic-leaning voters — notably voters of color and young people — turned that truism upside-down.
A comprehensive new analysis of voter data from the Pew Research Center estimates that if every eligible voter in America had shown up to the polls in November, Trump still would have won the popular vote.
In fact, his overall margin of victory may even have been slightly higher.
Pew’s analysis, which verifies whether or not participants in its nationally representative panel survey voted in the 2024 presidential election by matching them against three commercial voter files, yields new insights about how Trump defeated Kamala Harris. This study of “validated voters” also allows its researchers to examine the political preferences of nonvoters.
The validated voter survey reflects that 50% of voters overall pulled the lever for Trump, while 48% chose Harris. (The Cook Political Report National Popular Vote Tracker shows that
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The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
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