The two major party conventions are now behind us and the consequent bounces have had time to settle giving us a presidential race that isn’t over, but one that is fully developed. Many observers have noted that in the last six decades of modern presidential polling, the candidate with the lead in the polls two weeks after the final convention has always won. Presumably, but not certainly there will be up to three presidential and one vice presidential debates and plenty of room for missteps, disclosures and exogenous events that could alter the trajectory of this race. Given how badly the last few weeks have gone for Trump, it would not be implausible to see Clinton’s margin (seven points in Realclearpolitics.com’s average of major national polls, eight points in Pollster.com’s model) drop a few points. For now, 84 days before the November 8 election, we see this race settling into a very high probability that Hillary Clinton prevails over Donald Trump, though the size of the margin is still up in the air. At the mid-point of August, Hillary Clinton
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