With less than three weeks to go in election 2016 it is clear that Trump has abandoned any precept of fighting for persuadable voters. Instead, as he showed in every debate including the third and final one last night, Trump is all about stoking and stroking his base. Polling since the first debate has shown an unmistakable pattern - Clinton has been climbing and Trump has been falling - even in states once considered safely red like Arizona and Georgia. Given these factors, we are moving a number of states in our Electoral College ratings - all in favor of Clinton. Three states that had been in the Lean Republican column, Arizona, Iowa and Maine’s Second Congressional District, all move to Toss Up. Polling in Arizona shows a tight race, and the Clinton campaign is playing hard for the state, spending money on TV advertising and sending top level surrogates like First Lady Michelle Obama to stump. In Iowa, the Real Clear Politics average shows Trump still ahead, but Democrats and Republican strategists involved in the state tell us that

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