A tightening race nationally has also translated into tightening at the state level. States that were trending Trump’s way in September started to slip away from him in early October. Now, with the focus more on Clinton’s emails than on Trump’s debate performances or his Twitter spats, states like Iowa and Ohio are moving back in Trump’s direction.

Electoral College Ratings Changes November 3, 2016

We are moving Ohio from Toss Up to Lean Republican. Arizona, another state that was trending in Clinton’s direction earlier this month, looks to be going back to its GOP roots. Democrats are enthusiastic about stronger than normal early vote and increased enthusiasm among Latino voters. Even so, there’s not been a poll that shows Clinton ahead since earlier in October. This state moves from Toss Up to Lean Republican. Meanwhile, Democrats admit that the Clinton campaign is having trouble turning out African-American voters at 2012 levels. That shouldn’t be surprising given the fact that Obama isn’t on the ticket. But, it does mean that a state like North Carolina will be much closer.

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