Since the beginning of this cycle, Democrats were confident that President Joe Biden could win North Carolina. Its demographic profile as an ethnically diverse and rapidly suburbanizing state looks similar to other former Republican-leaning Sun Belt states that Democrats have flipped over the last few cycles, like Georgia, Arizona and Virginia. Moreover, Donald Trump won North Carolina by just over one point in 2020, his smallest margin of victory in any state that year.
But despite the optimism and hype, Biden was never able to keep this race close. By the time he dropped out of the race in late July, the president was trailing Trump by almost seven points.
Today, however, the Tar Heel State looks more competitive than ever. The most recent 538 and RealClearPolitics polling averages show Harris and Trump in a dead heat.
In other words, North Carolina is now a Toss Up.
What happened?
Trump hasn’t lost political ground since July; instead it’s that Harris has improved on Biden’s vote share by seven points. On July 21, Trump led Biden in the 538 average
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