This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 5, 2016. Now that the presidential nominations are set for each side, pollsters are busy surveying states and, with their strategists, poring over the data, trying to ascertain the contours of the fall election. From one election to the next, some small changes have to be worked into their calculus. Both parties have a core of states that are certain to go their way; they consider other states highly likely but not certain; still other states lean to one party or the other but are still in play; and finally some states are toss-ups. Needless to say, the toss-ups will attract the bulk of campaign spending. Based on past election results as well as many conversations with pollsters in both parties with access to far more data than is publicly available, Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee, starts off with a strong lead in 18 states plus the District of Columbia with a total of 217 electoral college votes, which represent 80 percent of the 270 needed to win. The Cook

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