Two of the nation’s largest swing states, Florida and Pennsylvania, were decided by extremely slim margins in 2016, and both will undoubtedly be of equal or greater importance in 2020. Both states are vital to President Trump’s re-election effort; losing either one would make it extremely difficult to find a path to victory. We’ve examined the factors that led to Trump’s 2016 win in both states, and identified the circumstances he will need to replicate for a repeat victory in 2020. Pennsylvania is a diverse state that is home to 20 Electoral College votes. While often described as “Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, with Alabama in the middle,” the dynamics of the state are more nuanced. Pennsylvania is a microcosm of America’s changing political landscape. The rich suburbs outside of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are ancestrally Republican, but lean increasingly Democratic. In contrast, voters in rural areas throughout the rest of the state, often with deep Democratic and unionist roots, are rapidly leaving the party. Trump won Pennsylvania by only 44,000 votes and lost many of the larger, urban counties in the state

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