This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on August 22, 2016 This presidential race seems to have stabilized at a point where the probability of Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump is very high, but the margin is tough to predict—as is the rate of voter turnout. Sure, there could be an exogenous world event, terrorist attack, or economic calamity that could change the dynamics of this race, or there could be developments involving the candidates themselves that could change the trajectory of this election. But for every challenge Clinton faces, there is at least an equal one for Trump; think of Clinton’s emails versus Trump’s income-tax returns. First, look at the national horse-race numbers: Using the RealClearPolitics.com poll averages, Clinton leads by 5.5 points in the two-way trial heat, 47.0 percent to Trump’s 41.5. On the four-way, including Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, Clinton is at 41.6 percent to Trump’s 37.1, a lead of 4.5 points. Leads this long after the two convention bounces have settled generally hold up. Then look at the swing states, again

More from the Cook Political Report

The Senate in mist
National Politics
Photo of Charlie Cook
October briefing
Events
Cook Politcal Logo
DW
First Person
Cook Politcal Logo