Three weeks ago, Donald Trump was leading President Joe Biden in the Cook Political Report national vote tracker by about 2.5%. Today, Kamala Harris leads Trump by less than one point, a shift of more than three points in Harris’ direction. Battleground state polls are showing similar results, with Harris cutting into Trump’s lead by anywhere from two to five points.
The FiveThirtyEight state polling averages from July 21, the last day that Biden was the Democratic nominee, found the president trailing in the Sun Belt states of Georgia, Nevada and Arizona by more than five points. Today, Trump’s lead is well within the margin of error in Arizona and Georgia. There weren’t enough polls for a Nevada average, but recent CBS and Bloomberg surveys have Harris with a two point lead. In the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where Trump was leading by anywhere from two to four points, Harris now has a margin of error lead in those states of anywhere from 0.7 to 1.6%.
Harris is also seen more favorably today than she
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.