Usually at this stage of a campaign, there’s a consensus on how things are going to turn out. The data, the political environment and the “gut” feeling of operatives all point in the same direction.
This year, however, is different.
There are clear signs that Vice President Kamala Harris’ upward movement in the polls has stalled. She has consolidated most, but not all of the Biden 2020 coalition, especially younger voters and voters of color. You can’t open a national media publication without reading something about sagging enthusiasm for Harris among young men, or Black voters, or Latinos.
And yet, former President Donald Trump’s vote isn’t growing either. On July 25, the day after the Cook Political Report National Poll Tracker average started tracking the Trump vs. Harris horse race, Trump sat at 47.2% of the vote. As of October 24, he sits at … you guessed it, 47.2%.
The battleground state poll averages (via FiveThirtyEight) are showing marginal movement toward Trump, but his overall share of the vote is basically in line with his showing in 2020. For example,
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The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.
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