Every year, the Census Bureau releases fresh data detailing patterns of migration within the United States. Since 2020, those patterns have pointed to trouble ahead for Democrats.
Blue states like California and New York continue to hemorrhage residents to states in the Sun Belt, all but guaranteeing that both states will lose representation in the U.S. House and Electoral College next decade. That could close key Democratic pathways to an Electoral College majority, essentially forcing the party to win in large Sun Belt states in addition to sweeping the industrial Midwest.
Per several recent studies — including one particularly detailed look at the partisan consequences of recent domestic migration trends from The New York Times — registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats who moved to larger red states like Florida and Texas. New residents to Arizona also tilt decisively toward the GOP. And in the trio of northern swing states (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) that are experiencing an influx in registered Democrats, the overall population gains are remarkably small. Only Georgia appears to have some actual long-term good news for Democrats.
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