We’d been getting used to “this won’t matter” campaigns—as in, key events like presidential debates and party conventions rarely moved the needle at all.

Then, this summer happened. The debate between President Biden and former President Trump mattered enough to drive the president out of his reelection campaign. Arguably, it was even more consequential than the famous 1960 debate between Vice President Richard Nixon and Sen. John Kennedy and as important as the 1980 debate between President Carter and former California Gov. Ronald Reagan that enabled Reagan's win. Prior to that debate, there were plenty who questioned whether the former Hollywood actor was heavy enough to be presidential timber. Reagan easily cleared that hurdle and turned an election that was almost universally considered “too close to call” into a 10-point landslide.

Just a few weeks after Biden's exit, the Democratic convention also mattered. Vice President Kamala Harris was almost a blank slate in many minds, but the Democratic convocation in Chicago certainly played a role in her largely positive introduction to swing voters.

Which brings us to Tuesday’s first (and

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