Surveying the Labor Day Election Landscape

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on September 1, 2016 The start of Labor Day week­end, the tra­di­tion­al be­gin­ning of the gen­er­al elec­tion, is a good time to take stock of the 2016 cam­paign. As of Thursday at noon, Hil­lary Clin­ton was ahead of Don­ald Trump by 4.9 per­cent­age points, 46.8 to 41.9 per­cent, in the Real­Clear­Polit­ics av­er­ages of ma­jor na­tion­al polls in the two-way tri­al heats; up by 4.2 points in the three-way, 42.3 to 38.1, with Liber­tari­an Party nom­in­ee Gary John­son gar­ner­ing 8.2 per­cent, and by 3.9 points in the four-way test, 42 to 38.1, with John­son pulling 7.6 and Green Party nom­in­ee Jill Stein 3.2 per­cent.

Swing voters are torn. They tend to see Clin­ton as smart, know­ledge­able, ex­per­i­enced, and com­pet­ent, but they don’t like or trust her. Many like the fact that Trump is not a politi­cian and speaks his mind. They may even agree, par­tially or totally, with the real es­tate mogul on im­mig­ra­tion or hand­ling ter­ror­ism, but they ques­tion his